What Is a DWP State Pension Forecast (and How to Read It for HRP)?
Your State Pension forecast is an official DWP estimate of what you’ll receive at State Pension age, based on your current National Insurance (NI) record. For HRP, the forecast helps us spot NI gaps that overlap with parenting and caring years (1978–2010) and estimate the uplift and arrears once HRP is added.
Where to get your forecast (GOV.UK)
• Online (fastest): https://www.gov.uk/check-state-pension
You’ll sign in with Government Gateway (or create one). The service shows your forecast, how many qualifying years you have, and whether you can increase your pension.
• By phone/post (if you can’t use online): Call the Future Pension Centre (DWP) and ask for a forecast by post.
What your forecast shows (key sections)
1) Your estimated weekly State Pension at State Pension age (based on your current NI record).
2) How many qualifying years you have and how many you can still build before State Pension age.
3) Whether you can increase your pension by adding qualifying years (for example, via contributions or credits).
4) Important notes such as COPE or contracting-out history under the old system.
How to read the forecast for HRP checks
• Compare with your NI record: match the forecast’s qualifying-years position to your NI record year-by-year.
• Identify gaps in 1978–2010 that coincide with parenting or caring. These are potential HRP years.
• If Child Benefit (CB) was in a partner’s name, consider an HRP transfer for those years if you were the main carer.
• If your name or address changed, be ready to bridge identity across documents (marriage certificate, deed poll, council tax and utilities).
• Don’t rush to buy Class 3 years before you’ve checked HRP. HRP credits may remove the need to pay.
COPE and ‘old vs new rules’ — simple explanation
COPE (Contracted-Out Pension Equivalent) appears when you were contracted out of part of the State Pension in the past. It isn’t a bill; it’s used to explain how your State Pension was calculated under transitional rules. HRP is separate: it increases qualifying years. We focus on restoring missing HRP years first, then assess any need for voluntary contributions.
What changes when HRP is added?
• Qualifying years increase for eligible years, which can increase the weekly figure at State Pension age.
• If you’re already receiving the pension, DWP should recalculate and pay arrears for the underpaid period.
• The “can you improve your forecast?” section may change once HRP is credited, reducing or removing any need for Class 3.
Simple action plan (5 steps)
1) Get your State Pension forecast (GOV.UK link above) and save or print it.
2) Get your NI record and mark any gaps in 1978–2010 that match parenting or caring years.
3) Gather evidence: Child Benefit letters and bank references; pre-2002 caring letters; marriage certificate or deed poll; address proofs.
4) Apply for HRP (CF411) on GOV.UK with a short cover note mapping your evidence to specific tax years.
5) When corrected, compare the new figures to your forecast and check whether any arrears payment is due.
FAQs
Do I need both the forecast and the NI record? Yes. The forecast shows the headline number, while the NI record shows the detailed years and gaps needed for HRP checks.
Will COPE stop HRP helping me? No. HRP works by restoring qualifying years where eligible. COPE reflects contracting-out history, not HRP.
Can Evanshaw help me read the forecast? Yes. We explain the figures, build your HRP evidence, submit the claim, and chase the outcome.
Official links
Check State Pension forecast (GOV.UK): https://www.gov.uk/check-state-pension
Check your NI record (GOV.UK): https://www.gov.uk/check-national-insurance-record
Apply for HRP (CF411) (GOV.UK): https://www.gov.uk/guidance/apply-for-home-responsibilities-protection